Out with the old? Veteran lawmakers face election tests

WASHINGTON–Two of the nation’s most senior lawmakers will test in Tuesday primaries whether decades of service can withstand the shifting winds of party politics, changing demographics and the anti-incumbent malaise among voters.

Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., and Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., are the third-longest serving lawmakers in their respective chambers. Rangel, 84, was elected in 1970 and Cochran, 76, was elected in 1978.

Rangel’s Harlem-based district, and Cochran’s Southern home state are almost political polar opposites: Rangel’s district is the second most Democratic in the nation. President Obama received 95% of the vote in 2012. Mississippi has one of the most racially polarized electorates in the country, and Republicans control almost every lever of state government.

But Cochran and Rangel face the same problem on Tuesday: They are fighting for their political lives among constituencies that no longer appear to value their congressional tenures. A Gallup poll in May underscored the point: 72% of registered voters say most members of Congress do not “deserve re-election” this year.

Voters tend to be more positive towards their own lawmakers — 50% of voters in the same Gallup poll said their own member deserves re-election — but that approval is similar to levels in elections years that saw high turnover rates in Congress, including 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010.

In Mississippi, Cochran faces the Tea Party-aligned Chris McDaniel, a state senator who forced the incumbent into a runoff by denying him a majority of votes in the June 3 primary. Every runoff poll has McDaniel leading Cochran, but the two camps and their allies campaigned furiously in the three-week runoff stretch to get their supporters to the polls on Tuesday.

“I’ve sensed the momentum has turned for Sen. Cochran,” said Rep. Gregg Harper, R-Miss., who supports the incumbent and attended a Monday rally along with Sen.John McCain, R-Ariz.

Cochran, a former chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has used his perch in Washington to dole out millions to his federally reliant home state, but those efforts have not quelled enthusiasm for McDaniel, who has run on an anti-spending, anti-Washington campaign.

McDaniel has an advantage with those voters most likely to go vote in the run-off: white, conservative voters. Cochran is working to turn out Gulf Coast voters who have close ties to the federal government in the shipyard and defense industries. His campaign is also attempting to find some crossover appeal from conservative white Democrats and black voters.

Matt Kibbe, president and CEO of FreedomWorks, said there has been a surge of grassroots support for McDaniel since the primary, further fueled by enthusiasm over Tea Party challenger Dave Brat’s upset victory over House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia on June 10. “I’m cautiously optimistic that McDaniel will win,” Kibbe said.

In Harlem, Rangel faces a four-way Democratic primary with his top challenge coming from state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who lost to Rangel in the 2012 primary by 1,086 votes. Like Cochran, Rangel faces a shifting constituency, driven by the 2012 redistricting process that redrew his district to include more Hispanic voters who had never been represented by Rangel. These voters may also place less value on Rangel’s stature as one of the nation’s best known black politicians. Espaillat would be the first Dominican-American in Congress, and has campaigned on that appeal.

An African-American pastor, the Rev. Michael Walrond Jr., is also on the primary ballot. While he is not expected to win, he could siphon off Rangel’s support among black voters.

Contributing: Catalina Camia in Washington and Deborah Barfield Berry in Mississippi.

Out with the old? Veteran lawmakers face election tests